Going back to Peyton Manning in 1998, 19 of 26 first overall picks have been quarterbacks. Based on this historical precedent and a supposedly loaded quarterback class, led by Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, we can safely assume the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft will be another quarterback. As we’ve seen in recent years, having a star quarterback on a rookie contract is the greatest asset a team can have …. so, when there’s an opportunity to have one, teams do it. That said, are the top quarterbacks everything they’re built up to be during the draft process? To answer this, TNP reviewed the last 19 quarterbacks taken with the first pick (from Peyton Manning onward) and placed into different tiers.
Before diving into this further, let’s be clear … not all prospects are created equal. For example, Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence were unequivocally higher-ranked prospects out of college than Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff. That said, if you’re the first overall pick, you’re expected to at least be a franchise quarterback with elite potential. It’s also worth mentioning that several of these players are still writing their stories, but we’ll get there. Alright, without further ado, here are the tiers.
Gold Standard (1 out of 19 quarterbacks): Peyton Manning
Simply put, there’s no other “can’t miss” quarterback on this list who delivered beyond expectations. As one of the greatest football players of all time, winning five MVPs and two Super Bowls, not much more needs to be said about the Hall of Famer (the only one on the list, by the way).
HOF Pace (2): Andrew Luck and Joe Burrow
Before his surprise retirement, Andrew Luck was arguably the next face of the NFL with four Pro Bowl seasons and four playoff wins. Despite some injury-riddled seasons, he reached the point of his career where the Super Bowl, and maybe MVP, was next for him. It’s impossible to know if he would’ve achieved this, but most in the football community believe he would’ve been a perennial Pro Bowl caliber player, pacing for the HOF.
Similar to Luck, Joe Burrow has had his share of unfortunate injuries, but there’s no denying he’s been very impressive to start his career. After his first three seasons, he already won five playoff games and came very close to winning a Super Bowl … and oh yeah … became a top-three QB. If he can keep this up, he’ll be on his way to Canton.
Good Not Great (7): Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, and Jared Goff.
This group is very interesting. It’s not only the largest but also the most controversial. This group can likely be broken down further as Eli, Stafford, Cam, and Vick have some HOF backing already, whereas Palmer, Smith, and Goff really don’t. Nevertheless, all of these quarterbacks fit around the following parameters: they put together some Pro Bowl caliber seasons and led their teams to the playoffs (with varying levels of success) but, most importantly, were never consistently elite.
Yes, Eli has the two Super Bowls and showed brilliant flashes. Yes, Cam was incredible during his 2015 MVP season. Yes, Stafford has a legendary arm and finally won a Super Bowl when given a great roster. However, when thinking of GREAT quarterbacks during this era, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Russell Wilson all come to mind over the other guys listed … who were/are Good Not Great.
Didn’t Work Out (3): Sam Bradford, Jameis Winston, and Baker Mayfield
It’s probably safe to say it didn’t work out for these draft picks as their original teams moved on from them.
Really Didn’t Work Out (3): Tim Couch, David Carr, and JaMarcus Russell
Compared to the group above, for one reason or another, it just worked out even less.
TBD (3): Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, and Bryce Young
More time is needed to determine the tiers for these quarterbacks. One could argue that Murray and Lawrence are Good Not Great but it’s unclear if their organizations and fans even think so.
What does this all mean?
Well, at a high-level, the number one pick is no slam dunk … at least 30% haven’t worked out since Peyton Manning was drafted. When drilling down the Good Not Great tier, it may not even be a free throw. For example, Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, and Jared Goff all made three Pro Bowls and have won at least one playoff game. That said, these quarterbacks played some of their best football on teams that didn’t even draft them. If you asked Bengals, 49ers, and Rams fans whether Palmer, Smith, and Goff ended up being worthy of the first pick, the reviews would likely be mixed, at best. On this thought, of the 19 quarterbacks taken, how many of the fanbases (from the original draft team) would generally say they were happy with the pick? Undoubtably, Colts fans were happy about Peyton and Luck, and Bengals fans are thrilled with Burrow so far. Despite some ups and downs, it’s likely fair to say Giants, Panthers, Lions, and Falcons fans were happy about Eli, Cam, Stafford, and Vick (speaking more so prior to his off-the-field controversies, he was likely going to be the quarterback in Atlanta for some time). When adding this up, that makes 7 of 19 or 37%. Think about that. Based on recent history, teams that take a quarterback with the first pick have nearly a one-in-three chance to actually make the fans happy in the long-run. That’s not great given all of the time and resources teams (and fans) pour into top quarterback selections. Nevertheless, does this mean that teams should stop drafting quarterbacks first overall? No, not necessarily but it doesn’t mean they absolutely have to either.
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