Did the XFL and USFL Provide Opportunities and Develop Impactful Talent?

After two seasons for both leagues, the XFL and USFL recently announced their intention to merge in advance of the 2024 season. Presumably, the merged league will continue to brand itself as a pipeline and talent developer for the NFL … but are we sure this was ever really the case? Despite some headlines in recent years for players like Taylor Heinicke and KaVontae Turpin … I found myself wondering how many of these players had opportunities to make NFL rosters and, for those who did, how impactful were they? I reviewed player data over the last two season, courtesy of XFL News Hub and USFL Newsroom, to assess.

Have the XFL and USFL provided opportunities to play in the NFL?

If your dream is to have a shot at making an NFL roster, the XFL and USFL have provided that. Dating back to 2020, there have been approximately 1,600 players who have played in the XFL and USFL. Of the ~1,600 players, over 230 (or ~15%) have had an NFL opportunity. Meaning, nearly one out of seven players in the XFL or USFL have had chances ranging from working out to signing with NFL teams. Specifically, wide receivers have received the most opportunities during that time span (41 players with opportunities), followed by defensive backs (22), tight ends (17), and linebackers (17). Rounding out the skill players on offense (since that’s what most football fans gravitate towards thanks to fantasy), quarterbacks and running backs had 15 and 14 opportunities, respectively.

While the XFL and USFL have provided opportunities to over 230 players, roughly 60 are in the NFL in some capacity (or ~4% of the player pool of ~1,600). At ~4%, it's safe to say, the odds of being on a roster are pretty slim. As a point of comparison, the odds are even slimmer than Minor League Baseball where approximately 10% of players make it to the Majors (per The Hill). Given the absolute and comparative low percentage of making rosters (~4% of the XFL and USFL player pool), one could argue the opportunities weren’t very realistic. Nevertheless, for those looking for their shot, they certainly got one, albeit small.

Have the XFL and USFL provided impactful talent to the NFL?

Not really. When looking at the current rosters and practice squads in the NFL, less than 3% are from the XFL and USFL, which is fairly immaterial in the grand scheme of things (and this includes several players on practice squad). Furthermore, there aren’t any premier NFL players from the XFL or USFL, which is to be expected given these are developmental leagues.

Can the merged XFL-USFL provide impactful talent to the NFL?

Despite some of this pessimism (or realism), there could be some potential for quarterbacks to have an outsized impact. Former players from the XFL and USFL make up ~6% of today’s NFL quarterback pool (assuming each team carries three between the active roster and practice squad). Now, that’s not nothing and there’s some solid experience as well. For example, Taylor Heinicke has started 26 games in the NFL, including one playoff game. Josh Johnson and P.J. walker have started 9 and 7 games, respectively.

It's also worth noting, this analysis is based on two seasons for the XFL and USFL. If you look back in time, there are some other quarterbacks who played in developmental leagues and had legitimate careers in the NFL – Kurt Warner, Jake Delhomme, Tommy Maddox, Brad Johnson, Jon Kitna, Jay Fiedler, Scott Mitchell, Shaun Hill, Todd Bouman, Damon Huard, Jim Miller, and Doug Pederson (per ESPN). Thus, with some more time, the merged XFL-USFL could provide a solid pipeline of quarterbacks, likely competent backups but maybe some starters, to the NFL. Given the quarterback is the most important position in sports, the merged XFL-USFL has an opportunity to provide value to the NFL in this matter.