We learned last week that Jimmy Butler would not be signing an extension with the Heat this summer, making the 2024-2025 NBA season a prove it year for Jimmy … but what does this mean exactly? What does Jimmy need to do to earn an extension? Well, Pat Riley hasn’t told me yet so I don’t actually know. However, after years of watching Jimmy on the Heat, I think I understand the formula (so technical, I know) to help get there. The short answer, not surprisingly, is that Jimmy needs to 1) be more durable and 2) bridge the gap from “Regular Season” Jimmy to “Playoff” Jimmy. The long answer isn’t complex either, but there are some interesting data points that support a reasonable target for this season.
Durability
I’ll try to keep this section somewhat brief as this is a gimme … sort of like the Celtics' path to the finals (I’m kidding … partially … but in all seriousness, they made their luck and deserve to be champs). Jimmy just needs to be on the floor more. During the last three seasons, Jimmy hasn’t played more than 64 games. Why has this been such a challenge? I don’t know. I’m not Jimmy (though I wish) or a doctor (bless them but I’m good here) … but let’s stay on this for a minute. Again, I don’t actually know but would guess it’s not because Jimmy is playing too many minutes. Since joining Miami, he’s played around 34 minutes per game, which is less than his Chicago days where he was near the top of the league and Thibs took “heat” for playing his guys too hard … and still does. As a quick aside, I get why people say that about Thibs but am not sure it’s really warranted … hear me out. I don’t think Thibs is the only head coach to ever have injured star players. I don’t recall him being the head coach for Embiid, Giannis, Kawhi, Klay, Durant, Murray, and several other stars who missed extended periods of time or the playoffs … sometimes it just happens … which could just be the case for Jimmy but let’s get back on track.
Anyways, as I was saying, Jimmy has been around 34 minutes per game in Miami, which seems about right for a mid-30’s All-NBA caliber player. For reference, Curry, Dame, and PG were all around that number last season as well. Thus, I don’t think it’s a minute’s story (and not that anyone was really saying this) but if he was playing 37-38 minutes a night like Durant or DeRozan, it might be more reasonable. If it’s not a minute’s story, then what is it? Perhaps Jimmy’s bully-ball style might put him in more vulnerable positions but honestly think he’s just one of those guys who’s more susceptible to injuries … it’s just sort of is what it is. I know this wasn’t that brief … as I just wrote a whole section without an awesome (and fairly obvious) answer … but felt like it was a good opportunity to defend Thibs at least.
Bridging the Gap Between Regular Season and Playoff Jimmy
We all know how awesome “Playoff” Jimmy can be (trust me, the three ECF and two Finals runs were some of my favorite basketball memories … really since Derrick Rose’s MVP season) but what does this actually mean? In a nutshell, it means being more aggressive as a scorer and shooting outside more often … but let’s break this down further.
As a member of the Miami Heat, Jimmy has played in 64 playoff games and, in those games, has averaged 24.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in 38.5 minutes. Meanwhile, in 291 regular season games, Jimmy has averaged 21.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.7 assists in 33.7 minutes (steals, blocks, etc. are in-line with playoffs). During the playoffs, Jimmy has scored more (3.4 PPG) but in more minutes (4.8 MPG) and on more shots (3.8 FGA with 1.2 being 3-point attempts). Beyond shooting more 3-pointers at a much higher clip (34% in playoffs vs. 30% in regular season), how much of “Playoff” Jimmy is really just volume based?
I don’t have an exact answer but think it’s fair to say it’s definitely a portion. When adjusting Jimmy’s regular season stats to be proportional to his playoff minutes (i.e., what would his regular season stats look like if he played 38.5 MPG), there is clearly a bump in scoring due to natural volume (albeit it’s at an assumed higher shooting percentage in the regular season of 50% vs. 48% in the playoffs) but it doesn’t explain everything. You see, even when adjusting for the same minutes, Jimmy looks for his shot more in the playoffs, especially 3-pointers, than he does in the regular season (almost two shots more per game). Additionally, his assists are down by nearly one per game, which might also suggest he’s looking for his shot more.
When looking further into Jimmy’s playoff vs. regular season shooting, he’s actually taking less shots near the basket (3-5 % less) and more from mid-range (2-3%) and three (4%) during the playoffs (I’m guessing part of this is due to defenses being more locked in and not allowing Jimmy to drive as easily). Interestingly, his field goal percentage follows a similar pattern, notably from three. Not only is Jimmy shooting more in the playoffs (and from deeper range), he’s also seemingly scoring in more isolation scenarios (as his percentage of assisted baskets are notably less in the playoffs).
The Formula
How can Jimmy "Prove It" this upcoming season? From a durability standpoint, at the very least be eligible for All-NBA (65 games), which isn’t asking for that much. However, given the struggles to make the playoffs in recent years, I think 70 regular season games would make everyone (reasonably) happy. In terms of minutes, I don’t think much needs to change. Increasing Jimmy’s minutes would likely increase injury risk, which is already high, and also takes minutes from other players who could benefit from the reps, especially when their name is called upon in the playoffs (as we’ve seen with several Miami players in the past). Playing less minutes wouldn’t make much sense either since the team needs Jimmy on the floor as much as possible (but within reason).
If Jimmy’s minutes are kept the same this season, can he bridge the gap to “Playoff” Jimmy? Absolutely. He may not score 25 PPG, in part due to less volume, but there’s no reason Jimmy can’t be more assertive, especially in taking outside shots. Teams are happy to give it to him as they’re terrified that Jimmy will get to the rim and start drawing fouls. However, there are just times when he’s not looking for his shot (and sometimes this is in the playoffs in which it may because he’s utterly exhausted, injured, and/or he’s simply just deferring). I don’t have any advanced stats here but have seen several times where Jimmy could just take the mid-range jumper and it would be a fine shot for the offense (or at least I would be happy with it). Instead, Jimmy may over-dribble, getting himself stuck, and have to find an outlet for a quick shot with the clock running down. Perhaps there’s an element of trying to be unselfish or get a better shot but it can end up being a cluster of a possession. As a Jimmy fan, it pains me to write this slight critique, given all the other awesome things he does, but it can be true. On the bright side, I think this can be easily corrected as it’s not asking Jimmy to change his game that much or demanding he score 30 PPG (although sometimes he needs to for the team). In reality, it’s asking for him to consistently pick his spots more because he and the Heat are at their best when Jimmy is scoring 22-24 points and doing everything else that impacts winning. To further this point, the Heat have won nearly 72% of the time when Jimmy has scored between 22-24 points, equating to 59 wins in the regular season … good for a one or two seed in most years.
So, I guess it’s settled then. 70 games. 23 points per game and everything else that Jimmy normally does to prove he’s worth the extension. Oh yeah … and another deep playoff run would be nice. Hopefully Pat Riley agrees.
Notes: Data sourced from Basketball Reference
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