If the NFL season ended after Week 12, the top three picks would belong to Chicago, Arizona, and New England, respectively. All three teams have questions at quarterback and, undoubtedly, are watching the next QB class closely. Despite what we had to say about the less-than-spectacular success rate of top quarterbacks selected, most mock drafts have Chicago, Arizona, and/or New England drafting Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in the top three. Given the hype, it makes sense, but what if these teams decided to go another route and traded down in the draft? What sort of package could they expect to receive? Let’s look at some recent history to assess.
Since the 2012 NFL Draft, teams have traded into the top three picks to select a quarterback seven times. The quarterbacks traded for include: Bryce Young (2023), Trey Lance (2021), Sam Darnold (2018), Mitchell Trubisky (2017), Jared Goff (2016), Carson Wentz (2016), and Robert Griffin III (2012). While the individual trades varied case-by-case, the average package consisted of:
Swapping first round picks
One additional first-rounder
One additional second-rounder
One additional third-rounder
Does this mean that Chicago, Arizona, and/or New England would receive this compensation? Unsurprisingly, it depends on several factors, including but not limited to: the additional premium required for more certain talents like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye (as compared to Lance, Darnold, and Trubisky), the demand to trade up from other teams (the more demand, the higher the return), the number of picks needed to move up for the trade partner, and the perceived depth of the quarterback class (the more depth, the less demand to move up). While it remains to be seen, if the last few years (i.e., the trades for Bryce Young and Trey Lance) serve as a more realistic benchmark than the average package quoted above, the trade compensation could be significant and create a path to acquiring multiple blue-chip players. With this path in mind and the historical randomness of hitting on franchise quarterbacks, the front offices for Chicago, Arizona, and/or New England will likely (or should) entertain trade offers. Whether they agree to one is another story.
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